Journal
MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
Volume 21, Issue 7, Pages 1201-1213Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msh088
Keywords
Bayesian method; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); rate change model; lognormal; evolutionary rate; selection; synonymous rate; nonsynonymous rate
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The rate of molecular evolution can vary among lineages. Sources of this variation have differential effects on synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates. Changes in effective population size or patterns of natural selection will mainly alter nonsynonymous substitution rates. Changes in generation length or mutation rates are likely to have an impact on both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates. By comparing changes in synonymous and nonsynonymous rates, the relative contributions of the driving forces of evolution can be better characterized. Here, we introduce a procedure for estimating the chronological rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions on the branches of an evolutionary tree. Because the widely used ratio of nonsynonymous and synonymous rates is not designed to detect simultaneous increases or simultaneous decreases in synonymous and nonsynonymous rates, the estimation of these rates rather than their ratio can improve characterization of the evolutionary process. With our Bayesian approach, we analyze cytochrome oxidase subunit I evolution in primates and infer that nonsynonymous rates have a greater tendency to change over time than do synonymous rates. Our analysis of these data also suggests that rates have been positively correlated.
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