The fundamental and realized niche of the Monterey Pine aphid, Essigella californica (Essig) (Hemiptera: Aphididae):: implications for managing softwood plantations in Australia

Essigella californica is a pine aphid native to western North America. In Australia, E. californica is considered an invasive pest that has the potential to cause severe economic loss to the Australian forestry industry. Two CLIMEX models were developed to predict the Australian and global distribution of E. californica under current climate conditions based upon the aphid's known North American distribution. The first model (model I) was fitted using the reasonably contiguous set of location records in North America that constituted the known range of E. californica, and excluded consideration of a single (reliable) location record of the aphid in southern Florida. The second model (model II) was fitted using all known records in North America. Model I indicated that the aphid would be climatically restricted to the temperate, Mediterranean and subtropical climatic regions of Australia. In northern Australia it would be limited by hot, wet conditions, while in more central areas of Australia it is limited by hot, dry conditions. Model II is more consistent with the current Australian distribution of E. californica. The contrast in geographical range and climatic conditions encompassed between the two models appears to represent the difference between the realized niche (model I) and fundamental niche (model II) of E. californica. The difference may represent the strength of biotic factors such as host limitation, competition and parasitism in limiting geographical spread in the native range. This paper provides a risk map for E. californica colonization in Australia and globally. E. californica is likely to remain a feature of the Australian pine plantations, and any feasibility studies into establishing coniferous plantations in lower rainfall areas should consider the likely impact of E. californica.