Has the transition to agriculture reshaped the demographic structure of prehistoric populations? New evidence from the Levant

This paper presents the demographic changes that followed the transition from a hunting-gathering way of life (Natufian) to an agricultural, food-producing economy (Neolithic) in the southern Levant. The study is based on 217 Natufian (10,500-8,300 BC) skeletons and 262 Neolithic (8,300-5,500 BC) skeletons. Age and sex identification were carried out, and life tables were constructed. A five-parameter competing hazard model developed by Siler ([1979] Ecology 60:750-757) was used to smooth life-table data. No indication of increased mortality with the advent of agriculture was noted. On the contrary, both life expectancy at birth (24.6 vs. 25.5 years) and adults' mean age at death (31.2 vs. 32.1 years) in-creased slightly from the Natufian to the Neolithic period (assuming stationary populations). Yet the transition to agriculture affected males and females differently: mean age at death in the Natufian was higher for adult females compared to adult males, while in the Neolithic, it was the reverse. One interpretation given to the distribution of female ages at death is that with the onset of the Neolithic period, maternal mortality increased as a result of a concomitant increase in fertility. If the adoption of agriculture in the Levant increased the rate of population growth at the beginning of the Neolithic, expectation of life may have increased dramatically. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.