Spatial considerations in the management of Atlantic cod off Nova Scotia, Canada

A spatial, age-structured population dynamics model was developed for a stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua off eastern Nova Scotia to examine alternative management options. The model incorporates stock structure, seasonal migration, predation, Allee effects, and variation in natural mortality. The simulated dynamics of two substocks were compared under three management options: (1) historical catch levels; (2) combined management (substocks are managed as one unit) with a constant fishing mortality rate (F) of 0.4; and (3) separated management (substocks are managed individually) with the same F level. Three major conclusions emerged from the simulations. First, the population dynamics under historical catch levels tended to vary widely from complete extinction to a fourfold increase. Second, constant-F management produced stable population dynamics, reduced the probability of stock decline, and yielded a higher average catch. Third, the combined management option resulted in overfishing the more vulnerable substock; separated management helped to prevent the more vulnerable substock from collapse, but its performance was compromised when there was net immigration to the more vulnerable substock.