Ecological models based on people's knowledge:: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Many types of ecological or environmental problems would benefit from models based on people's knowledge. To create ecological models with both expert and local people's knowledge, a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach is proposed. A cognitive map can be made of almost any system or problem. Cognitive maps are qualitative models of a system, consisting of variables and the causal relationships between those variables. We describe how our cognitive mapping research has been used in real environmental management applications. This research includes examining the perceptions of different stakeholders in an environmental conflict, obtaining the perceptions of different stakeholders to facilitate the development of participatory environmental management plans, and determining the wants and desires for resettlement of people displaced by a large scale dam project. Based on our research, which involved six separate studies, we have found that interviewees complete their cognitive maps in 40-90 min on average. These maps contain an average of 23 +/- 2 S.D. variables with 37 +/- 3 S.D. connections. People generally put more forcing functions into their maps than utility variables. Fuzzy cognitive mapping offers many advantages for ecological modeling including the ability to include abstract and aggregate variables in models, the ability to model relationships which are not known with certainty, the ability to model complex relationships which are full of feedback loops, and the ease and speed of obtaining and combining different knowledge sources and of running different policy options. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.