Reproductive success in presenescent common gulls (Larus canus):: the importance of the last year of life

Survival selection against individuals of inferior quality (measured as breeding success) has been proposed to account for the increase in average reproductive success with advancing age in presenescent birds. This so-called selection hypothesis relies on quality-dependent survival. In the present breeding performance study of common gulls, Larus canus, this assumption was not verified. In particular, omitting the last breeding year from the analysis resulted in the disappearance of the correlation between breeding success and survival. A positive correlation in the full dataset was thus solely based on the poor breeding success of ultimate breeders. Indeed, presenescent individuals were shown to have a specifically low breeding success in their terminal breeding event. The poor success of ultimate breeders thus reflects an abruptly declined condition rather than the birds' overall quality. A comparison of the survival of poor and good performers, involving last-time breeders, thus needs not to be a proper test of the selection hypothesis. Longitudinal analysis revealed a steady increase of individual breeding success until the tenth breeding year. The results suggest that an increase of breeding success with age often found in cross-sectional analyses is primarily a result of age-related improvements of competence and/or increased reproductive effort.