A diagnostic study of record heavy rain in twin cities Islamabad-Rawalpindi

Using surface and NCEP reanalysis data along with radar and satellite images, diagnosis has been carried out to probe the reasons for the very heavy rainfall that occurred in lslamabad-Rawalpindi on 23 July 2001. It has been revealed that the sudden evolution of this meso-scale severe weather system was the direct result of strong surface convection in moist and unstable lower layers of the atmosphere. The subsequent rapid development was the combined effect of the presence of the mid latitude westerly's trough in the north and moisture feeding through monsoon flow along the Himalayas and also the direct southwesterly current from the Arabian Sea. After the westward shifting of the Sub-Tropical High (STH) from the north of India, the strong divergence zone on its eastern edge contributed positively to the development of upward motion. Initially the convective systems moved towards the south and then southeastward following the steering current in the middle troposphere. Based on these analyses, the physical model of the sudden record heavy rainfall has been proposed and a comparison between the heavy rainfall in this case and one in China has been conducted.