A general model for the analysis of mark-resight, mark-recapture, and band-recovery data under tag loss

Estimates of waterfowl demographic parameters often come from resighting studies where birds fit with individually identifiable neck collars are resighted at a distance. Concerns have been raised about the effects of collar loss on parameter estimates, and the reliability of extrapolating from collared individuals to the population. Models previously proposed to account for collar loss do not allow survival or harvest parameters to depend on neck collar presence or absence. Also, few models have incorporated recent advances in mark-recapture theory that allow for multiple states or auxiliary encounters such as band recoveries. We propose a multistate model for tag loss in which the presence or absence of a collar is considered as a state variable. In this framework, demographic parameters are corrected for tag loss and questions related to collar effects on survival and recovery rates can be addressed. Encounters of individuals between closed sampling periods also can be incorporated in the analysis. We discuss data requirements for answering questions related to tag loss and sampling designs that lend themselves to this purpose. We illustrate the application of our model using a study of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens).