Anti-diphtheria antibody seroprotection rates are similar 10 years after vaccination with dTpa or DTPa using a mathematical model

The reduced antigen content diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (dTpa) vaccine (Boostrix(TM)) has been shown to induce a strong booster response to all the vaccine components in 4-6 year olds. However, anti-diphtheria antibody levels were observed to be lower when compared to the full strength paediatric DTPa vaccine. To assess the impact of this difference on long-term protection, a mathematical model was developed to predict diphtheria antibody decay over time. The model was based on a linear decrease in log-transformed antibody concentrations after the first year post-vaccination. When applied to data collected 3.5 years after vaccination of 4-6 year olds with either DTPa or dTpa, the model predicted that 10 years post-vaccination, 98.6% of subjects vaccinated with dTpa were likely to remain seroprotected against diphtheria, compared to 99.6% vaccinated with DTPa. Therefore, the difference observed in diphtheria antibody geometric mean concentrations I month after booster vaccination at 4-6 years with dTpa or DTPa is unlikely to be of clinical relevance 10 years later at the time of the adolescent booster. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.