Accurate theoretical prediction of pollinator-mediated gene dispersal

Many empirical studies have quantified gene dispersal in plants. Theoretical principles are required to explain these observations and to predict gene dispersal in new situations. The portion-dilution model (PDM) is a parametric restatement of the conventional view of animal pollination that predicts levels of pollinator-mediated gene dispersal. The present study tested the PDM's ability to predict gene dispersal in rows of bumble bee-pollinated Brassica napus containing centrally located, genetically marked plants. The PDM accurately predicted the proportion of marked progeny among unmarked plants (predicted = 2.0%, observed = 2.1%), and a related analysis explained 74% of the spatial variation in marker gene representation. This theory's success begins to validate its use for predicting gene dispersal in B. napus in particular and for explaining pollinator-mediated gene dispersal in general.