Journal
STRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 19-31Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/15732470412331289350
Keywords
uncertainty; probability; consequences; risk; engineering decisions
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Engineers deal with uncertainties in all their activities, and must often make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Infrastructures engineering is no exception-design codes are developed to ensure a desired level of safety and performance, or to ensure a specified operational life with a prescribed level of reliability; the required decisions must often be formulated without complete information and thus contain uncertainties. In considering uncertainties, it is important to recognize two broad types; namely, the aleatory type which is associated with natural randomness and the epistemic type which is associated with imperfect knowledge. Proposed here is a framework for the proper modeling and treatment of each type of uncertainty in the formulation of risk-informed engineering decisions. The concepts are illustrated with applications to bridges and offshore marine structures.
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