Migration and population expansion of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus since 15000 years in and across the Alps, based on pollen-percentage threshold values

Aims: The aim of this study is to explore the migration (colonization of new areas) and subsequent population expansion (within an area) since 15 ka cal BP of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus into and through the Alps solely on the basis of high-quality pollen data. Methods: Chronologies of 101 pollen sequences are improved or created. Data from the area delimited by 45.5-48.1 degrees N and 6-14 degrees E are summarized in three ways: (1) in a selection of pollen-percentage threshold maps (thresholds 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, and 32% of land pollen); (2) in graphic summaries of 250-year time slices and geographic segments (lengthwise and transverse in relation to the main axis of the Alps) as pollen-percentage curves, pollen-percentage difference curves, and pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP graphed against both the length and the transverse Alpine axes; and (3) in tables showing statistical relationships of either pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP or pollen expansion durations (= time lapse between different pollen percentage threshold ages cal BP) with latitude, longitude, and elevation; to establish these relationships we used both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression after stepwise-forward selection. Results: The statistical results indicate that (a) the use of pollen-percentage thresholds between 0.5% and 8% yield mostly similar directions of tree migration, so the method is fairly robust, (b) Abies migrated northward, Fagus southward, Picea westward, and Quercus northward; more detail does not emerge due to an extreme scarcity of high-quality data especially along the southern foothills of the Alps and in the eastern Alps. This scarcity allows the reconstruction of one immigration route only of Abies into the southern Alps. The speed of population expansion (following arrival) of Abies increased and of Picea decreased during the Holocene, of Fagus it decreased especially during the later Holocene, and of Quercus it increased especially at the start of the Holocene. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.