Predictions of energetic particle radiation in the close Martian environment

[1] Intense, prolonged solar flare activity during March 1989 was used to provide a retrospective scenario for predictions of associated interplanetary shocks and accompanying particle radiation at planet Mars. Shocks from five major flares were simulated to hit both the Earth and Mars during the interval 9-23 March 1989. The simulated scenario was provided by the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv.2) solar wind model. Since part of the generally required inputs for the model (specifically metric radio Type II coronal shock speeds) were not available, the shock speeds were iteratively determined via a calibration that uses limited IMP 8 particle and sudden storm commencement (SSC) data as proxies for shock arrival at the Earth. The shocks from four major solar flares were, thereby, found to arrive at Mars at times that are appropriate to explain solar energetic particle (SEP) and energetic storm particle (ESP) events recorded in situ by the particle radiation detector experiments Solar Low Energy Detector (SLED) and Low Energy Telescope (LET) aboard Phobos-2. Supporting measurements were provided by the magnetometer (MAGMA) and plasma spectrometer (TAUS) experiments. A gap in the spacecraft records occurred at the simulated time of arrival of the fifth flare-associated shock. There were some uncertainties attending the selection of certain of the events deemed to be parent flares. Such uncertainty can be expected in view of the incomplete set of energetic particle, plasma, and magnetic field measurements made at relevant times at both the Earth and Mars (the latter planet was then located at a distance of 1.6 AU, at about 78 degrees east of the Sun-Earth line). Use of the HAFv.2 solar wind model affords a 4-day lead time between predicted and measured space weather events at Mars, with an error of approximately +/- 12 hours. Solar radiation events of the magnitude studied occur often enough to warrant consideration in the design of both manned and unmanned expeditions to Mars.