Journal
APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION
Volume 195, Issue 2, Pages 591-597Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2007.05.005
Keywords
artificial neural networks; feed forward neural networks; time series forecasting; model selection criteria
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In recent years, artificial neural networks have been used for time series forecasting. Determining architecture of artificial neural networks is very important problem in the applications. In this study, the problem in which time series are forecasted by feed forward neural networks is examined. Various model selection criteria have been used for the determining architecture. In addition, a new model selection strategy based on well-known model selection criteria is proposed. Proposed strategy is applied to real and simulated time series. Moreover, a new direction accuracy criterion called modified direction accuracy criterion is discussed. The new model selection strategy is more reliable than known model selection criteria. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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