Application of seasonal SVR with chaotic gravitational search algorithm in electricity forecasting

Hybridization chaotic mapping functions with optimization algorithms into a support vector regression model has been shown its efficient potential to avoid converging prematurely. It is deserved to explore more possibility by hybridizing with other optimization algorithms. Electricity demand sometimes demonstrates a seasonal tendency due to complicate economic activities or climate cyclic nature. This investigation presents a SVR-based electricity forecasting model which applied a novel hybrid algorithm, namely chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CGSA), to improve the forecasting performance. The proposed CGSA employs the chaotic local search by logistic chaotic mapping function in the iteration of the original GSA to search and refine the current best solution. In addition, seasonal mechanism is also applied to deal with seasonal electricity tendency. A numerical example from an existed reference is used to illustrate the forecasting performance of the proposed SSVRCGSA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than ARIMA and TF-epsilon-SVR-SA models. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.