Journal
APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
Volume 33, Issue 7, Pages 2934-2938Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2008.10.002
Keywords
Principle of maximum entropy; P-III distribution function; Recurrence interval; Disaster loss; Risk analysis
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [40771044]
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Disasters that occur everywhere in the most disordered way indicate that disaster entropy has reached the maximum value. Under given constraint conditions, when disaster entropy is the maximum value, the disaster loss series should follow P-III distribution. The occurrence interval of disaster loss refers to the average time interval that disaster loss of certain degree happens in the future. We could, according to the field disaster data and using P-III distribution function, calculate the value of future disaster loss with certain recurrence interval. Explicit in concept and easy to use, such a method has significant meaning in practice. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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