Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem

A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) treats all incoming data in real time, signals the possibility of a regime shift as soon as possible, then monitors how perception of the magnitude of the shift changes over time. Results of a STARS application to the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem show how the 1989 and 1998 regime shifts manifest themselves in biotic and abiotic indices in comparison with the 1977 shift. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.