Mortality from lung cancer and tobacco smoking in Ohio (US): Will increasing smoking prevalence reverse current decreases in mortality?

Background: Despite significant changes in smoking patterns within the past few decades, lung cancer remains a major cause of cancer deaths in many developed countries in people of each sex, and one of the most important public health issues. The study aims to analyze the possible impact of changes in tobacco smoking practices in the state of Ohio (U.S.) on current and future trends and patterns of lung cancer mortality. Materials and Methods: Mortality rates from lung cancer were calculated for the period 1970 to 2001 on the basis of data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The Joinpoint regression approach was used to evaluate changes in time trends by sex, age, and race. Data on smoking prevalence in Ohio were retrieved from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. Results: Lung cancer mortality rates in Ohio have declined among men of all ages as well as in specific age groups in the 1990s, and the rate of increase among middle-aged and elderly women has dropped over time. The mortality rate among young women (ages 20-44) began to increase during the early 1990s. The prevalence of smoking in Ohio has increased since the early 1990s, especially among young persons. Conclusions: Recent trends in tobacco smoking in Ohio indicate that the declining trends in lung cancer mortality might be reversed in the future. An early indicator of possible change is the recent increase in mortality among young women. Implementation of the Ohio Comprehensive Tobacco Use Prevention Strategic Plan might help to disseminate proven prevention strategies among the inhabitants of Ohio and might thus prevent future increases in lung cancer mortality rates in the state.