Journal
ENERGY POLICY
Volume 33, Issue 9, Pages 1223-1230Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2003.11.020
Keywords
Environmental Kuznets Curve; CO2-projections
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This paper projects Swedish CO2-emissions during the period 2000-2010 based on data covering 1900-1999. Swedish climate policy is currently based on the assumption that carbon emissions will increase, ceteris paribus, by 5-15 % relative to the 1990 level. This forecast has motivated a number of policy measures, including carbon taxes, subsidies and an information package. We find, however, that CO2-emissions may well be lower in the future. This outcome is broadly consistent with the literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which portrays the relationship between emissions and GDP. The key contribution of this paper is that our analysis is based on a long time series. Current literature is invariably based on short panel data sets, while we study a single country through several phases of development. Our analysis also sheds some light on the key importance played by nuclear power for carbon emission projections. (c) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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