Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 308, Issue 5727, Pages 1431-1435Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1110252
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Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 +/- 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include(i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.60 degrees C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's tag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
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