Journal
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 234, Issue 3, Pages 413-421Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.12.003
Keywords
epidemiology; spreading models; complex networks; infectious diseases
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We discuss the dynamics of a minimal model for spreading of infectious diseases, such as various types of influenza. The spreading takes place on a dynamic small-world network and can be viewed as comprising short- and long-range spreading processes. We derive approximate equations for the epidemic threshold as well as the spreading dynamics, and show that there is a good agreement with numerical discrete time-step simulations. We then analyse the dependence of the epidemic saturation time on the initial conditions, and outline a possible method of utilizing the model in predicting the development of epidemics based on early figures of infected. Finally, we compare time series calculated with our model to real-world data. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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