The effects of war risk on US financial markets

This paper measures the effects of the risks associated with the war in Iraq on various US financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in war risk caused declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor accounted for a considerable portion of the variances of these financial variables over the three months leading up to the arrival of coalition forces in central Baghdad. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.