The influence of publication delays on impact factors

Based on the convolution formula of the disturbed aging distribution (EGGHE & ROUSSEAU, 2000) and the transfer function model of the publishing delay process, we establish the transfer function model of the disturbed citing process. Using the model, we make simulative investigations of disturbed citation distributions and impact factors according to different average publication delays. These simulative results show that the bigger increment the average publication delays in a scientific field, the larger shift backwards of the citation distribution curves and the more fall the impact factors of journals in the field. Based on some theoretical hypotheses, it is shown that there exists theoretically an approximate inverse linear relation between the field (or discipline) average publication delay and the journal impact factor.