Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 309, Issue 5737, Pages 1083-1087Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.1115717
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Funding
- NIAID NIH HHS [R01-AI32042] Funding Source: Medline
- NIGMS NIH HHS [U01-GM070749] Funding Source: Medline
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Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R-o) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease, In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis. could be effective for containing strains with an R-o as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R-o as high as 2.4.
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