Population Pharmacokinetics of Lopinavir Predict Suboptimal Therapeutic Concentrations in Treatment-Experienced Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Children

In adult protease inhibitor (PI)-experienced patients, a lopinavir (LPV) phenotypic inhibitory quotient (PIQ) of >15 has been associated with a higher likelihood of viral suppression. The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model of LPV in children and to estimate the probability of achieving a PIQ of >15. HIV-infected, PI-experienced children receiving LPV were intensively sampled for 12 h to measure plasma LPV. The data were fitted to candidate PK models (using MM-USCPACK software), and the final model was used to simulate 1,000 children to determine the probability of achieving an LPV PIQ of >15. In 50 patients (4 to 18 years old), the median LPV plasma 12-hour-postdose concentration was 5.9 mg/liter ( range, 0.03 to 16.2 mg/liter) lower than that reported in adults. After a delay, LPV was absorbed linearly into a central compartment whose size was dependent on the weight and age of the patient. Elimination was dependent on weight. The regression line of observed versus predicted LPV had an R-2 of 0.99 and a slope of 1.0. Visual predictive checks against all available measured concentrations showed good predictive ability of the model. The probability of achieving an LPV PIQ of >15 was >90% for wild-type virus but <10% for even moderately resistant virus. The currently recommended dose of LPV/ritonavir appears to be adequate for children infected with wild-type virus but is unlikely to provide adequate inhibitory concentrations for even moderately resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). PI-experienced HIV-infected children will likely benefit from longitudinal, repeated LPV measurement in plasma to ensure that drug exposure is most often near the maximal end of the observed safe range.