Development of the metabolic syndrome in black and white adolescent girls: A longitudinal assessment

Background. The metabolic syndrome, associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, begins to develop during adolescence. Objective. We sought to identify early predictors of the presence of the syndrome at the ages of 18 and 19 years in black and white girls. Methods. Using longitudinal data on participants from 2 centers in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study, a 10-year cohort study, we applied cutoffs from the Adult Treatment Panel III to document changes in the prevalence of abnormal syndrome elements and the syndrome in girls aged 9 and 10 years, when cases were rare, and those aged 18 and 19 years, when prevalence had reached 3%. Longitudinal regression models identified early predictors for the presence of the syndrome. Results. Only 1 girl of each race had >= 3 factors at ages 9 and 10 ( 0.2%), but 20 black girls ( 3.5%) and 12 white girls ( 2.3%) had the syndrome 10 years later. Low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was prevalent throughout the period in both black and white girls. The prevalence of other variables was low at enrollment but increased during follow-up, except for abnormal triglyceride levels in black girls, which remained low throughout follow-up. In multivariate models, early measures of waist circumference and triglyceride level were significant predictors for development of the syndrome. Conclusion. The strong association of central adiposity with the development of the metabolic syndrome suggests that early interventions aimed at managing pre-teen obesity could reduce risk of developing the syndrome.