Modeling trade-offs between fire threat reduction and late-seral forest structure

Evaluating the effects of managing for one forest resource in terms of associated impacts on other resources is not easy. Yet methods to identify potential trade-offs among forest resources are necessary to inform people about the implications of management options on public land. This paper uses a case study from a forest reserve in the northwestern United States to quantify trade-offs between fire threat (FT) and late-seral forest (LSF) structure at stand and landscape levels. Simulation of forest dynamics was done with and without silvicultural treatments. A landscape optimization algorithm maximized FT reduction subject to constraints on amount of LSF structure and total area treated. Results suggest that compatibility between the two objectives is possible at the landscape level when LSF structure is about 45% or less of the total reserve area. Conflict can exist between them at the stand level and when more area is required to be in LSF structure in the reserve landscape.