Can global warming affect tropical ocean heat transport?

Tropical meridional ocean heat transport is studied in six coupled ocean-atmosphere models in which atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increased. In the Indo-Pacific, the strength of Subtropical Cells (STCs) changes in response to changes in the trade winds. However, the change is not consistent among models. In contrast, in all models the tropical Indo-Pacific heat transport remains nearly constant over time due to compensation of STC and the horizontal gyre variations. Even under strong atmospheric radiative forcing the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean heat transport trends are determined by changes in circulation, rather than changes in the stratification. Ocean heat transport in the tropical Atlantic responds to weakening of the basin-wide meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The trends in the South Atlantic STC do not affect ocean heat transport.