Journal
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
Volume 16, Issue 1, Pages 19-28Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.11.001
Keywords
biodiversity; climate change; stabilisation profiles; integrated assessment; scenario analysis
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With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity.. comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 degrees C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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