Fishing under low productivity conditions is further delaying recovery of Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

Excessive and unsustainable fishing mortality was the predominant factor in the depletion of Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks. However, despite imposition of severe catch restrictions for over a decade, stocks have mostly failed to recover at predicted rates. A number of explanations have been considered. Our analysis of demographic characteristics of 12 of these stocks indicates that recent productivity over the northern portion of the range is much lower than 20 years previous when several stocks recovered from less severe declines. Main contributing factors are, in rank order, increased natural mortality, decreased body growth, and in a few cases, reduced recruitment rates. Continued fishing in directed and bycatch fisheries is also an important factor. Under current conditions, we estimate negative or very low (< 2% per year) average growth rates in eight stocks. If fishing ceases, growth rates of > 5% would be expected in six stocks, with > 10% in four of these. Although productivity is low, we conclude that fishing mortality is further delaying recovery.