On the dynamics of dengue epidemics from large-scale information

A model for the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever is proposed in this article. The vector population dynamics is derived from a diffusion equation that is based on environmental parameters at the scale of a remote-sensing image. Vectors and hosts populations are then classically divided into compartments corresponding to their respective disease status. The transmission processes between hosts and vectors are described by a set of differential equations. The link between the vector population diffusion model and the compartmental model enables one to describe both the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease. Simulations in artificial and actual landscapes show the advantage of using remotely sensed and complementary meteorological data for modelling in a realistic way the geographic spread of a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.