Early prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time-scales and remote sensing data: application in the Ebro valley (North-East Spain)

This Letter shows the results of early crop prediction from combined use of AVHRR-NDVI data and drought indices at different time-scales. The study was carried out in an agricultural municipality located in the Middle Ebro valley, one of the most arid regions in Europe. The methodology proposed here has allowed the prediction of wheat and barley production in February, four months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models created have explained 88% and 82% of the temporal variability of wheat and barley production, respectively. This procedure could be very useful for managing crop production at a municipal level. Moreover, insurance companies could take advantage of the early prediction of crop losses, which are very frequent in this drought-affected area.