Pre-implantation multiple cytokine mRNA expression analysis of donor lung grafts predicts survival after lung transplantation in humans

While current donor selection with clinical findings is generally effective, the imprecise nature of the assessment forces clinicians to remain on the conservative side. A reliable biological marker would assist donor selection and would improve donor organ utilization. We collected biopsies from 169 donor lungs before implantation. Expression levels of IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma and IL-1 beta were measured by quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). Seventeen cases died within 30 days after transplantation. No donor factor was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. Univariate analysis of the 84 cases for development of the prediction model showed that IL-6, IL-8, TNF-alpha and IL-1 beta were risk factors for mortality and IL-10 and IFN-gamma were protective factors. We analyzed the cytokine expression ratios of risk to protective cytokines. A stepwise logistic regression for 30-day mortality demonstrated that a model containing the ratio of IL-6/IL-10 was the most predictive (p = 0.0013). When applied to the remaining 85 cases for validation, the test of model fit was significant (p = 0.039). Using the cytokine ratio, we were able to define three risk groups with striking differences in survival (p = 0.0003). Multi-cytokine analysis of the donor lung graft with qRT-PCR shows significant promise as a strategy to biologically evaluate the donor lung prior to implantation.