Predictors of premature gonadal failure in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.: Results from LUMINA, a multiethnic US cohort (LUMINA LVIII)

Objective: To examine the predictors of time to premature gonadal failure (PGF) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus from LUMINA, a multiethnic US cohort. Methods: PGF was defined according to the SLICC Damage Index (SDI). Factors associated with time to PGF occurrence were examined by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses: three models according to cyclophosphamide use, at T0 (model 1), over time (model 2) and the total number of intravenous pulses (model 3). Results: Thirty-seven of 316 women (11.7%) developed PGF (19 Texan-Hispanics, 14 African-Americans, four Caucasians and no Puerto Rican-Hispanics). By multivariable analyses, older age at T0 (hazards ratio (HR)= 1.10-1.14; 95% CI 1.02-1.05 to 1.19-1.23) and disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Measure-Revised) in all models (HR = 1.22-1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.12 to 1.35-1.37), Texan-Hispanic ethnicity in models 2 and 3 (HR = 4.06-5.07; 95% CI 1.03-1.25 to 15.94-20.47) and cyclophosphamide use in models 1 and 3 (1-6 pulses) (HR = 4.01-4.65; 95% CI 1.55-1.68 to 9.56-13.94) were predictors of a shorter time to PGF. Conclusions: Disease activity and Texan-Hispanic ethnicity emerged as predictors of a shorter time to PGF while the associations with cyclophosphamide use and older age were confirmed. Furthermore, cyclophosphamide induction therapy emerged as an important determinant of PGF.