Journal
JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
Volume 16, Issue 2, Pages 106-114Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/sj.jea.7500442
Keywords
nitrogen dioxide; traffic; land use regression; GIS
Funding
- NCI NIH HHS [5-R21-CA094723-03] Funding Source: Medline
- NIEHS NIH HHS [1P01 ES11627, 5P30 ES05605-14, 5P30 ES07048, 5P01 ES09581] Funding Source: Medline
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We modeled the intraurban distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker for traffic pollution, with land use regression, a promising new exposure classification technique. We deployed diffusion tubes to measure NO2 levels at 39 locations in the fall of 2003 in San Diego County, CA, USA. At each sample location, we constructed circular buffers in a geographic information system and captured information on roads, traffic flow, land use, population and housing. Using multiple linear regression, we were able to predict 79% of the variation in NO2 levels with four variables: traffic density within 40-300m of the sampling location, traffic density within 300-1000m, length of road within 40m and distance to the Paci. c coast. Applying this model to validation samples showed that the model predicted NO2 levels within, on average, 2.1 p.p.b for 12 training sites initially excluded from t he model. Our evaluation of this land use regression model showed that this method had excellent prediction and robustness in a North American context. These models may be useful tools in evaluating health effects of long-term exposure to traffic-related pollution.
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