Atmospheric trajectories and spring bird migration across the Gulf of Mexico

We examined the relationship between the longitude of peak arrival of trans-Gulf migrants on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in spring and wind trajectories over the Gulf at three different altitudes (500, 1,500, and 2,500 m above ground level). We used data from 10 WSR-88D radars (weather surveillance radar-1988-Doppler) from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, Florida, to record the time and longitude of peak arrival on the northern Gulf coast for four spring migrations (2001-2004). We used the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model at the READY Web site to generate backward, 24-h atmospheric trajectories based on archived atmospheric data for each trans-Gulf flight. The trajectories began at the geographic location where radar indicated the greatest concentrations of arriving migrants. Although the longitude of peak arrival varied, peak densities of most trans-Gulf migrants arrived on the northern coast near longitude 95 degrees W. Regression analyses showed that the relationship between the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival and the direction of atmospheric trajectory was significant but weak at the 500-m level, where few migrants occurred, and was insignificant for the 1,500- and 2,500-m altitudes, where migrant densities were greater. We conclude that winds aloft over the Gulf have little influence on the longitude of peak trans-Gulf arrival on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and we speculate that the arrival pattern may reflect the trans-Gulf migration pathways that evolved during the Last Glacial Maximum.