Defining Cure for Esophageal Cancer: Analysis of Actual 5-Year Survivors Following Esophagectomy

Esophagectomy is the mainstay of curative treatment for localized esophageal cancer. However, what constitutes cure is not well defined. This study was undertaken to characterize actual 5-year survivors following esophagectomy and to determine prognostic factors for disease-specific survival (DSS) from 60 months. Between 1987 and 2004, 398 consecutive patients underwent esophagectomy and had potential for 5 years follow-up. Clinicopathological factors associated with DSS from 5 years onward were analyzed. Median DSS was 25 months. Neoadjuvant therapy was administered to 159 of 398 (40%). There were 114 of 398 (29%) actual 5-year survivors. On multivariate analysis, 5-year survivors were significantly more likely to have lower T classification, N classification, and R0 resections compared with patients who died less than 5 years after surgery. There were 66 of 398 patients (17%) with positive margins, and 6 of these were 5-year survivors. Of the 114 5-year survivors, 17 (15%) subsequently died of esophageal cancer. Prognostic factors for DSS after surviving 5 years were age and T classification for patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy and surgery alone, respectively. Powerful prognostic factors from time of treatment, including nodal status, were no longer prognostic factors after surviving to 5 years. No single clinicopathological variable negated survival to 5 years. Prognostication once surviving 5 years is difficult. The majority of 5-year survivors can be considered cured of esophageal cancer.