4.8 Article

RT Delphi: An efficient, round-less almost real time Delphi method

Journal

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 73, Issue 4, Pages 321-333

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005

Keywords

Delphi; ontology; artificial intelligence; futures methodology; futures research; foresight; conference room Delphi; real time Delphi; natural language processing; decision making; real time decision making; policy research; experts studies; roundless Delphi; on line Delphi; millenium project

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The authors have recently developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential rounds and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perforin such studies. This paper describes this process, RT Delphi, and illustrates its use in a decision-making application drawn from the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. The illustrative application involves setting priorities among strategies for dealing with anticipated terrorist activities that might be initiated by a single deranged individual. (c) 2005 American Council for the United Nations University. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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