Evaluating the feasibility of eradicating an invasion

The detectability of invasive organisms influences the costs and benefits of alternative control strategies, and the feasibility of eradicating an infestation. Search theory offers a mathematically rigorous framework for defining and measuring detectability taking account of searcher ability, biological factors and the search environment. In this paper, invasive species detectability is incorporated into a population simulation model. The model is applied to a base set of parameter values that represent reasonable values for a hypothetical weed. The analysis shows the effects of detectability and search effort on the duration of an eradication program. For a given level of detectability and search time, the analysis shows that the variables with the greatest influence on the duration of the eradication effort are search speed, kill efficiency, germination rate and seed longevity. Monte Carlo simulations are performed on a set of four weed scenarios, involving different combinations of plant longevity, seed longevity and plant fecundity. Results of these simulations are presented as probability distributions and allow us to calculate how the probability of eradication will be affected by search strategy.