Pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer risk: a pooled analysis in the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4)

Pancreatitis is a known risk factor for pancreatic cancer; however, an unknown fraction of the disease is thought to be a consequence of tumor-related duct obstruction. A pooled analysis of a history of pancreatitis and risk of pancreatic cancer was carried out considering the time interval between diagnoses and potential modification by covariates. Adjusted pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from 10 case-control studies (5048 cases of ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma and 10 947 controls) taking part in the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4). The association between pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer was nearly three-fold at intervals of > 2 years between diagnoses (OR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.96-3.74) and much stronger at intervals of < 2 years (OR: 13.56, 95% CI: 8.72-21.90) probably reflecting a combination of reverse causation and antecedent misdiagnosis of pancreas cancer as pancreatitis. The younger (< 65 years) pancreatic cancer cases showed stronger associations with previous (> 2 years) pancreatitis (OR: 3.91, 95% CI: 2.53-6.04) than the older (>= 65 years) cases (OR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.02-2.76; P value for interaction: 0.006). Despite a moderately strong association between pancreatitis (diagnosed before > 2 years) and pancreatic cancer, the population attributable fraction was estimated at 1.34% (95% CI: 0.612-2.07%), suggesting that a relatively small proportion of pancreatic cancer might be avoided if pancreatitis could be prevented.