Journal
RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 26, Issue 3, Pages 617-630Publisher
BLACKWELL PUBLISHING
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00761.x
Keywords
ambiguity; avian flu; multiple priors; precautionary principle
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The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so-called alpha-maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.
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