Journal
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Volume 25, Issue 11, Pages 1960-1975Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/sim.2366
Keywords
Bayesian survival analysis; evidence synthesis; cost effectiveness; semi-parametric models; life years gained; gamma process; survival extrapolation
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This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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