A 500-year context for the recent surge in sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) abundance in the Alagnak River, Alaska

Returns of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to the Alagnak River in Bristol Bay, Alaska, during the last 3 years were unprecedented in the last five decades. Enumerated run sizes averaged about 1 million fish from 1955 to 2002 but surged unexpectedly to average 5.4 million fish in 2003-2005. These huge returns currently pose a challenge to management of Bristol Bay sockeye for several reasons, including that it is unclear whether the recent surge in abundance is a new phenomenon or if it has arisen as part of interdecadal population variability. To answer this question we used changes in lake sedimentary delta N-15 coupled with an isotope-mixing model to estimate historical abundances of sockeye salmon populations in this ecosystem. Our analyses show that periods of high salmon abundance have occurred every similar to 100 years during the last five centuries, interspersed by prolonged periods of substantially lower abundance. We suggest that the recent high returns are an expression of the long-term variability that is characteristic of this stock and will be a relatively transient phenomenon.