Impact of population growth and land-use change on water resources and ecosystems of the and Tarim River Basin in Western China

Time series data on population change, economic development, climate change, water volume and quality and oasis land-use change were collected to study the interactions between these factors in the and Tarim River Basin, China. The study reveals that precipitation and stream flow in headwater streams increased, but stream flow in the main Tarim River had reduced significantly over the past three decades. This implies that human activity, rather than climate change, dominated the recent environmental changes in the river basin. As a result of population growth and cultivated land expansion in the upper and middle reaches of the river, severe problems of water shortage, water pollution, death of natural vegetation, soil salinization, desertification and sand-dust storms have occurred, particularly in downstream areas of the river basin. These problems have had serious negative effects on the health of local people and sustainable social economic development in the region. Some development strategies are proposed to deal with these problems.