Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study

Using a general-circulation climate model to drive an energy-use model, we projected changes in USA energy-use and in corresponding fossil-fuel CO(2) emissions through year 2025 for a low (1.2 degrees C) and a high ( 3.4 degrees C) temperature response to CO(2) doubling. The low-Delta T scenario had a cumulative ( 2003 - 2025) energy increase of 1.09 quadrillion Btu ( quads) for cooling/heating demand. Northeastern states had net energy reductions for cooling/ heating over the entire period, but in most other regions energy increases for cooling outweighed energy decreases for heating. The high-Delta T scenario had significantly increased warming, especially in winter, so decreased heating needs led to a cumulative ( 2003 - 2025) heating/ cooling energy decrease of 0.82 quads. In both scenarios, CO(2) emissions increases from electricity generation outweighed CO(2) emissions decreases from reduced heating needs. The results reveal the intricate energy-economy structure that must be considered in projecting consequences of climate warming for energy, economics, and fossil-fuel carbon emissions.