Global warming and excess nitrogen may induce butterfly decline by microclimatic cooling

Global warming may explain the current poleward shift of species distributions. However, paradoxically, climatic warming can lead to microclimatic cooling in spring by advancing plant growth, an effect worsened by excess nitrogen. We suggest that spring-developing but thermophilous organisms, such as butterflies hibernating as egg or larva, are particularly sensitive to the cooling of microclimates. Using published data on butterfly trends in distribution, we report a comparatively greater decline in egg-larva hibernators in European countries with oceanic climates and high nitrogen deposition, which supports this explanation. Furthermore, trends in abundance from a nationwide butterfly monitoring scheme reveal a 63% decrease over 13 years (1992-2004) for egg-larva hibernators in the Netherlands, contrasting with a nonsignificant trend in adult-pupa hibernators. This evidence supports the hypothesis that these environmental changes pose new threats to spring-developing, thermophilous species. We underline the threat of climate change to biodiversity, as previously suggested on the basis of mobility, habitat fragmentation and evolutionary adaptation, but we here emphasize a different ecological axis of change in habitat quality.