Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH
Volume 54, Issue 11, Pages 3452-3463Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2015.1117674
Keywords
stochastic learning curve; cost estimation; bias
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The learning curve is a fundamental model used by engineers in cost estimating. In industry, it is typical to use the deterministic model for projecting cost, which is also suggested in standard textbooks. However, the parameters for the model are obtained from actual data, which usually come from a stochastic process. In this technical note, we investigate a particular phenomenon of the stochastic learning model that indicates that a bias may exist in the parameter estimates simply due to random behaviour in learning. The findings suggest that, on average, projections of cost from a model whose parameters are estimated from early data points are, on average, optimistic about the future cost reduction.
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