Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 330, Issue 1-2, Pages 368-381Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.046
Keywords
Bayesian analysis; coherence; inconsistency; inference process; value of a statistical experiment; GLUE
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the incoherence, in terms of Bayesian inference, of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, introduced by Beven and Bintey in 1992. This results into a reduced capacity of the technique to extract information, in other words to learn, from observations. The paper also discusses the implications of this reduced Learning capacity for parameter estimation and hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment, which has led to the definition of the equifinality principle. The notions of coherence for learning and prediction processes as well as the value of a statistical experiment are introduced. These concepts are useful in showing that the GLUE methodology defines a statistical inference process, which is inconsistent and incoherent. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available