Journal
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 68, Issue 8, Pages 2263-2282Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-006-9108-6
Keywords
dengue; vector-borne; Aedes aegypti; Aedes albopictus; overwinter; vertical transmission; modeling; non-autonomous systems
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A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by (R) over bar, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when (R) over bar is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.
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