Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 21, Issue 11, Pages 1618-1629Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.05.007
Keywords
information technology; communication technology; environmental impact; sustainable development; information society; socio-economic modelling and simulation; system dynamics; structural change; material intensity; rebound effect; prospective technology assessment
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Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have relevant positive and negative impacts on environmental sustainability on various levels: First-order effects such as increasing electronic waste streams; second-order effects such as improved energy-efficiency of production; third-order effects such as a product-to-service shift in consumption or rebound effects in transport. In the simulation study described in this article, all known relevant effects on all three levels were modeled using a System Dynamics approach in combination with scenario techniques and expert consultations. The prospective study for the European Union with a time-horizon until 2020 revealed great potential for ICT-supported energy management and for a structural change towards a less material-intensive economy, but strong rebound effects in the transport sector whenever ICT applications lead to time or cost savings for transport. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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